Greetings to all the fans of the American football world and everyone engaged in the construction of the so-called ‘fantasy football leagues’ and let them start with the most burning question of the season. Justin Jefferson has been a revelation in the WR ranks, but maybe it is time to put him back on the bench given that he has to play with Sam Darnold. We will also try to place NFL fantasy football into a bigger perspective: Why do rushing QBs dominate? Or what’s happened to TEs? Fasten your seatbelt while we sort the myth from the reality and give you tips for the next round.
FACT: Rushing QBs Rule NFL Fantasy Football
The Raise of the Dual-Threat Quarterbacks
The NFL has already changed and nowhere is this truth so clearly illustrated as when looking at what the quarterback position has become. Adifferent breed of quarte with the ability to both pass and rush has become almost expected in fantasy football. Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray are such quintessential examples; they accumulate points not only passing but also running. These QBs have skills that conventional pocket passer do not possess in equal measure, at least not to the same level.
The Points Advantage
The excitement that a rushing QB represents comes in the fact of points scored from every aspect. In most leagues, passing a touch down gives you four points while hurrying a touch down gives you six points. Further, rushing yards tend to be valued faster than passing yards in the fantasy-scoring systems. It augments a point for every 10 rush yards and 25 passing yards. This scoring structure therefore tilts the scales of the game towards the sides of the quarterback who can also throw and scamper for more yardage.
Case Studies
Let us look at the kind of form Lamar Jackson who had an MVP season in the 2019 campaign. He passed for more than 3000 and ran for over twelve hundred yards while scoring thirty six touchdown through pass and seven through run. The two-part threat he posed made him the highest-scoring fantasy player that year. Likewise, Kyler Murray has thus been a darling of fantasy since his strong suits involve using his legs to create extra time on the field and gaining points on match-winning field while in the final minutes of the match.
Rushing QBs may well be the future of the NFL, offering not just a competitive edge but also a significant fantasy football boost. Whether you’re drafting or trading, these players should always be high on your radar.
FICTION: Justin Jefferson Is Still a No-Doubt Top-Tier Fantasy WR
The Changing Dynamics
Second year into his NFL career, Justin Jefferson has been quite the revelation. He has good on-field and especially off-field chemistry with Kirk Cousins and his talent makes him a sought after asset in fantasy football. But, the action alters significantly with a new quarterback such as Sam Darnold. On this front, although Jefferson’s talent cannot be put into question, the overall caliber of targets he will get may become a hit or miss.
The Effect of Quarterback Play
Quarterback play significantly affects a wide receiver contribution to a fantasy team. Sam Darnold has also had an up-and-down tenure, with moments of true potential but simply not a stable signal calmer. The time he spent playing for the New York Jets was not very successful due to poor performance and absence of requisite backup. Carolina brings a new beginning into focus but the inefficiencies associated to Darnold with regard to accuracy and timing of his passes remain rousing.
Comparative Analysis
To illustrate this, allow me to talk about DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins was clearly a number one wide receiver with Deshaun Watson but suffered a little regression there with anything less than a top tier signal caller. The same could possibly happen to Jefferson. But even in that role, the targets themselves may no longer be of the same quality, which will ultimately alter his fantasy performance.
The Verdict
Justin Jefferson talent, ability, and potential as a fantasy WR are not in doubt, but stout, he needs Sam Darnold as a starting quarterback. Perhaps, it’s better to lower the bar and maybe shop for security in your fantasy league pick. Jefferson is still that asset but it might not be advisable to just load your WR corps on Jefferson this season.
FACT: The TE Position Is Better Than It’s Ever Been in Fantasy
Evolution of Tight Ends
Most of the development of the tight end evolvement has occurred recently. The days are gone when TE positions were mainly occupied by pass-bashers who are also occasional receivers. The modern TEs are athletic performers, who effectively contribute to the team’s responsibility during offence production. Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Darren Waller have revolutionized the position, and it has probably become more valuable in fantasy football than ever before.
Consistent Production
Here is a copy of my tight end rankings and note how these first tier players routinely deliver every week, which is why they dominate the tight end position in fantasy football like no other. Such a player is Travis Kelce, who became the TE1 in PPR leagues for five years in a row. Despite the fact that can line up in several positions and thus exploit offensive deficiencies, he is quite a steady lay for fantasy football. In the same way, Darren Waller’s position as the primary target of the Raiders has meant a lot of targets and receptions for him.
Depth and Emerging Stars
Not for the first tier alone, however, several of the next generation of prospects are making this TE position deeper than it has been in a while. Targets such as T. J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts provide very high end potential and should be staples in rosters. This depth then gives a manager more choice, and cuts the gap between the top and the remaining contenders.
Strategic Advantage
Possessing a premier tight end can contribute greatly in fantasy football due to the primary importance of the position. While one can find other positions such as RB and WR in abundance and can wait for the later rounds in order to get the necessary players, TE can be that difference maker if the elite talent is acquired in the early rounds. By having consistency from the TE spot, one can overlook the inconsistency in other positions and have a better set team to face the opposition.
FICTION: The Chargers Are a Lock to Single-Mindedly Pound the Rock
Dynamic Offense
The Los Angeles Chargers are one of the strongest teams in the NFL when it comes to the offence and the key player is the young and talented Justin Herbert. Of course, in the running game, which revolves around Austin Ekeler, they are far from a one-legged team. The passing attack that includes Keenan Allen and Mike Williams provide a well rounded and diverse attack on offense.
Pass-Heavy Tendencies
Brandon Staley new head coach with Joe Lombardi also an offense coordinator aligns the team with a stronger focus on passing. They were in the top ten teams concerning pass attempts in 2020, showing they are not shy to throw the ball down the field. Herbert’s speed to read the defense and make and timely passes has placed a significant importance on the passing attacks.
Versatility of Austin Ekeler
Austin Ekeler is not your prototype between-the-tackles ball carrier. This versatility of receiving the ball out of the back makes him quite a flex weapon. Here, in PPR formats, they add a entirely new dimension to Ekeler’s value: his capability as a receiver. His presence in the passing game means that even when the Chargers team is not ‘ground and pound,’ as they like to say, Ekeler is still a mainstay in the Chargers’s passing game.
Balanced Approach
The team is going to run, there’s no question about this, but calling the Chargers a team that will simply ‘get married to the run’ doesn’t capture the overall picture. With the use of the run and pass, thus making them much stronger and a hard team to set a strategy against. The fantasy managers should understand that the Chargers are more than just a passing team and this should inform their players’ selection.
FICTION: The Loaded Bears Offense is GUARANTEED to Be Great in Fantasy
Overhyped Expectations
Being the Chicago Bears, they have however made high profile hiring sprees and so their offense has risen to great expectations so much so that this show has assumed high profile status. However, such expectations have to be taken with a pinch of salt so to speak. Nevertheless, enjoying the recent acquisition of Justin Fields and Allen Robinson, there are several reasons that can contribute to the minimal performance of the Bears’ offense.
Uncertainty at Quarterback
Chicago’s quarterback situation, as of now, remains blurry. Fields finally deserves this hope because, despite his talent as a second-round rookie quarterback, he is still unproven. His fluency to the next level will be accompanied by some rough patches; it’d be unreasonable to anticipate his ascendance to the stratosphere right out the gate. Also, considerations are made about the presence of Andy Dalton as the team’s starter, for it is not clear how long this status will be attributed to him.
Offensive Line Concerns
For the last few seasons, one of the concerns about the team has been the ability and stability of the Bears’ offense line. The defensive end of the ball and protection of the quarterback form the basics of offense and making of good running channels. If the offence line is an issue, this automatically dictates play and affects the output of other players with skills.
Conservative Playcalling
Decision-making from the head coach Matt Nagy regarding playcalling has been seen as somewhat timid at times. This approach tends to limit the possibilities of the offence and you tend to vary from one week to the other in terms of fantasy football. Unless there is a more effective and imaginative approach on attack, the Bears may find it impossible to deliver on the hopes being set for them.
On the one hand, the Bears have all they need to be a great fantasy offence; on the other hand, several factors enforce it that is rather risky to talk about their guaranteed success. Approach the team with caution and keep a close check before making massive investments in fantasy players on Bears.
(MOSTLY) FACT: It really is a fool’s errand to draft running backs on bad offenses.
Offence as a Context of Importance
Any point scorer in fantasy football especially the running backs is dependent on the team they are playing for. Players in the backfield on high powered, efficient, offenses will have more chances to gain yardage and make touchdowns. On the flip side, if the RBs run on the bottom Tier offenses only a few of them are likely going to excel big.
Volume vs. Efficiency
However, volume cannot be neglected while discussing running backs; otherwise, one should remember the efficiency rates. Starting backs on poor offenses could well get more touches on the ground but if those touches come in tackle box formations, or worst still, on third down, the yards per carry are going to be ugly. They have low yards per carry and touch downs making them less of a fantasy value in the game.
Historical Examples
Let’s imagine the 2020 Saquon Barkley for example. Thanks to his raw talent and first-round pedigree, Barkley endured a ghastly time on New York’s listless Giants offense before his knee injury. He was unable to put up eye popping fantasy numbers due to the inefficiency of the Giants offence. Similarly, James Robinson of the Jaguars had a breakout rookie season in 2020 but faced challenges as Jacksonville’s offense sputtered, negatively impacting his consistency.
Exceptions to the Rule
While drafting RBs on bad offenses is generally a losing proposition, there are exceptions. Some running backs, like Christian McCaffrey, possess the dual-threat capability to produce regardless of offensive context. Their involvement in the passing game provides a safety net, ensuring they remain valuable even when their team struggles.
Strategic Implications
When drafting running backs, it’s crucial to consider the overall offensive context. Prioritize RBs on efficient, high-scoring teams to maximize your chances of consistent production. While talent and volume are essential, the surrounding offense plays a pivotal role in determining a running back’s fantasy success.
In Short
Fantasy football is a dynamic and unpredictable game, requiring a keen understanding of player performance, team dynamics, and offensive schemes. By separating fact from fiction, you can make informed decisions that give you a competitive edge. Justin Jefferson’s top-tier status may be in question, but the rise of rushing QBs and the improved depth at the TE position offer new avenues for success.
Stay vigilant, stay informed, and most importantly, enjoy the game. For those looking to elevate their fantasy football experience, consider exploring advanced tools and resources to gain a deeper understanding of player performance and trends. Here’s to another exciting season of NFL fantasy football!